Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
