Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives The Villans' Unlikely Push for Glory

It was 60 days ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. Back then, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.

In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When the England international swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Challengers?

That’s a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together 10 in a row, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The prevailing tactic seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing United.

The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Can It Last?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.

• The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
• Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.

This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.