Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
